Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Oscar Nominees Predictions 2013

The Oscars are quickly approaching with nominations being announced January 16, 2014 at 8:30 am EST. So it’s time for my annual predictions post! I will be tuning in the day of the nominations and blogging my response to the nominees, so make sure to check back.

So many fantastic movies came out this year, I would be satisfied by about half of these movies winning best picture and credit must be given to all the other very worthy nominees that there isn't enough room to include here.

Best Picture- 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks, The Wolf of Wall Street

Most Likely to Slay the Wolf- Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, Philomena

Other Possibilities- August: Osage County, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, All is Lost, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Mud, Rush, Prisoners

12 Years a Slave and Gravity are the frontrunners to win so far, with American Hustle close behind and all are locked in for a nomination. At this point I would say that Captain Phillips is also locked in, and while I don't feel they're as good Nebraska and Saving Mr Banks should also be fairly locked in as well.
Her, Inside Llewyn Davis and Dallas Buyers Club have all been snubbed in other awards circles but I expect to see all 3 nominated at the Oscars.
          The Wolf of Wall Street seems to be the weakest link at this point, with very mixed reviews from critics. Still, with all the campaigning it’s been doing for a spot I would be genuinely surprised to see it left out.
          Fruitvale Station did manage to knock out Dallas Buyers Club for a spot on the American Film Institute’s annual Top 10 list, although The Dark Knight Rises and Moonrise Kingdom both beat out Amour last year on the list and Amour trumped them at the Oscars anyways, so take that with a grain of salt. More interesting to note is that Blue Jasmine beat Inside Llewyn Davis for a spot at the PGA, that might have some bearing on the nominations tomorrow morning.
          Philomena is another popular choice by critics not to be overlooked and of course August: Osage County has the Weinstein card so don’t be too surprised if either are nominated. The one thing I feel relatively certain about is that we will see a full 10 nominees put up this year.



Best Director- Alfonso Cuaron “Gravity”, Steve McQueen “12 Years a Slave”, David O Russell “American Hustle”, Paul Greengrass “Captain Phillips”, Spike Jonze “Her”

Could Take 4th or 5th Spot- Martin Scorsese “The Wolf of Wall Street”Alexander Payne “Nebraska”, Joel & Ethan Coen “Inside Llewyn Davis”

Major Players- Woody Allen “Blue Jasmine”, Ryan Coogler “Fruitvale Station”

Other Possibilities- JC Chandor “All is Lost”, Lee Daniels “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, John Lee Hancock “Saving Mr. Banks”, Nicole Holofcner “Enough Said”, Jason Reitman “Labor Day”

              This is always one of the tightest Oscar races and most difficult to predict, and this year is certainly no exception. Only Cuaron and McQueen are locks here at this point, with the Oscar likely going to one of the two. Russell and Greengrass seem safe with DGA nominations to back them up. The 5th spot could go either way between Scorsese, Payne and Jonze. Scorsese nabbed the 5th spot at the DGAs, BAFTAs and Critics Choice, Jonze also picked up a Critics Choice nod and Payne got 5th at the Globes. With all the controversy around The Wolf of Wall Street over the holidays, I'm going to say that Jonze sneaks in here by a hair, but it's anyone's game.

          Allen could quite easily snatch up a ‘surprise’ nomination and Coogler could pull the same move Benh Zeitlin did last year. If last year’s best director nominations taught us anything it is that for all of our predictions, we simply don’t know what will happen here.


Best Actor- Chiwetel Ejiofor “12 Years a Slave”, Matthew McConaughey “Dallas Buyers Club”, Tom Hanks “Captain Phillips”, Bruce Dern “Nebraska”, Robert Redford “All is Lost”

Major Players- Christian Bale “American Hustle”, Leonardo DiCaprio “The Wolf of Wall Street”, Joaquin Phoenix “Her”, Oscar Isaac “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Michael B Jordan “Fruitvale Station”, Forest Whitaker “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Idris Elba “Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom”

Best actor seems to be a fairly easy call at this point, but don’t think that we couldn’t see some upsets here. Ejiofor and McConaughey are the locks, with McConaughey taking the Golden Globe home. Hanks is a glaringly obvious choice as well and has yet to be overlooked.
I would not be surprised to see Bale knocking out Dern or Redford and although Whitaker trumped Redford for a SAG nomination, I would be surprised if the Academy left Redford out. Bale has managed to pick up a Critics’ Choice and BAFTA nomination, but losing out at the SAG could cost him. DiCaprio also managed to pick up a BAFTA nomination and a Golden Globe win, while both McConaughey and Redford lost out at the BAFTAs. At the end of the day, this was an amazing year and all of the actors listed deserve awards for their work.


Best Actress- Cate Blanchett “Blue Jasmine”, Emma Thompson “Saving Mr. Banks”, Meryl Streep “August: Osage County”, Judi Dench “Philomena”, Sandra Bullock “Gravity”

Dark Horse- Amy Adams “American Hustle”

Other Possibilities- Adele Exarchopoulos “Blue is the Warmest Colour”, Brie Larson “Short Term 12”, Berenice Bejo “The Past”, Kate Winslet “Labor Day”, Julie Delpy “Before Midnight”, Julia-Louise Dreyfus “Enough Said”, Greta Gerwig “Frances Ha”

This list seems to be unanimous between critics and is the one I expect to see a surprise in the least. Amy Adams is the dark horse and could steal a nomination here. She has had a phenomenal year and certainly deserves an Oscar. The big question is whose spot would she take? She did manage to pick up Streep’s spot at the BAFTAs and a win at the Golden Globes, but for Streep to miss an Oscar nomination is a tough call.
It’s also worth mentioning that Larson did manage to score film critics’ awards in Austin and Detroit as well as at Gotham and slipping past Adams for a Critics’ Choice nomination, but her chances in this race are small.



Best Supporting Actor- Jared Leto “Dallas Buyers Club”, Michael Fassbender “12 Years a Slave”, Bradley Cooper “American Hustle”, Barkhad Abdi “Captain Phillips”, Daniel Bruhl “Rush”

Other Possibilities- James Gandolfini “Enough Said”, Tom Hanks “Saving Mr. Banks”, Matthew McConaughey “The Wolf of Wall Street”, Jonah Hill “The Wolf of Wall Street”, Matthew McConaughey “Mud”, James Franco “Spring Breakers”, David Oyelowo “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Jeremy Renner “American Hustle”

          The most open-ended of the acting categories, Leto and Fassbender are both locks at this point with Cooper a likely 3rd. Abdi and Bruhl are based on the Golden Globe and much more importantly SAG nominations.
          Gandolfini beat out Cooper for a post-humous SAG nomination and both were nominated at the Critics’ Choice. Fassbender, Cooper, Abdi and Bruhl all received BAFTA nominations and while Leto was left out (Matt Damon for Soderbergh’s TV movie Behind the Candelabra filled his spot), that simply won’t happen again. Hanks, Hill and McConaughey are certainly still in the running though and Franco could be a dark horse here as well.


Best Supporting Actress- Lupita Nyong’o “12 Years a Slave”, Jennifer Lawrence “American Hustle”, Oprah Winfrey “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Julia Roberts “August: Osage County”, June Squibb “Nebraska”

Can She Do It? - Scarlett Johansson “Her”

Other Possibilities- Octavia Spencer “Fruitvale Station”, Sally Hawkins “Blue Jasmine”, Margo Martindale “August: Osage County”, Lea Seydoux “Blue is the Warmest Color”, Jennifer Garner “Dallas Buyers Club”, Sarah Paulson “12 Years a Slave”

              SAG nominations again confirm this category and Nyong’o and Lawrence are both locks at this point. Winfrey is relatively safe and Squibb and Roberts are likely to pick up nominations, but Spencer and Hawkins could swoop in for the steal. Hawkins has already knocked out Squibb at the BAFTAs. The big question is can Johansson get a nomination for her voice acting in Her? She did manage to pick up a win in Detroit and a Critics Choice nomination. I would be happy to swap out Squibb for Johansson, but whether she can and will make it remains to be seen.



Best Original Screenplay- Spike Jonze “Her”, Bob Nelson “Nebraska”, David O Russell & Eric Singer “American Hustle”, Woody Allen “Blue Jasmine”, Joel & Ethan Coen “Inside Llewyn Davis”

Could Take 5th Spot- Alfonso Cuaron & Jonas Cuaron “Gravity”, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack “Dallas Buyers Club”, Ryan Coogler “Fruitvale Station”, Nicole Holofcner “Enough Said”

Other Possibilities- Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith “Saving Mr. Banks”, JC Chandor “All is Lost”, Jeff Nichols “Mud”, Danny Strong “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”

          Unlike its twin below, original screenplay is packed with many well-deserving candidates this year. Jonze is my personal favourite to win here, so I’ll admit I am quite biased, but he and Nelson are the frontrunners.
          Jonze, Nelson, Allen and Russell all received WGA nominations which should lock them in for the Oscars. The Coen brothers are rarely without some lovin’ from the Academy, especially for something this good. That being said, they’ll have to compete with the Cuarons, Holofcner, Coogler and now WGA-nominee Borten & Wallack.


Best Adapted Screenplay- John Ridley “12 Years a Slave”, Billy Ray “Captain Phillips”, 
Terence Winter “The Wolf of Wall Street”, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater “Before Midnight”, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope “Philomena”

Other Possibilities- Tracy Letts “August: Osage County”, Peter Berg “Lone Survivor”, Ghalia Lacroix & Abdellatif Kachiche “Blue is the Warmest Color”, Jason Reitman “Labor Day”, Daniel Cretton “Short Term 12”

              For the first time in quite a while this is a much weaker category than original screenplay and probably one of the weaker categories this the year. Ridley is a lock and Ray and Winter are a likely 2nd and 3rd4th and 5th place are between Before Midnight, Philomena and August: Osage County. Before Midnight seems to be a safe 4th spot at this point picking up a WGA nomination with Ridley, Ray and Winter. While Letts did take the 5th spot at the WGAs, my vote is still for Coogan & Pope, especially seeing as this is one of only a few nominations Philomena is likely to get.



Best Cinematography- Emmanuel Lubezki “Gravity”, Bruno Delbonnel “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Sean Bobbitt “12 Years a Slave”, Phedon Papamichael “Nebraska”, Roger Deakins “Prisoners”

Could Easily Steal 4th or 5th- Barry Ackroyd “Captain Phillips”, Hoyte van Hoytema “Her”, Phillipe Le Sourd “The Grandmaster”

Other Possibilities- Frank G DeMarco “All is Lost”, John Schwartzman “Saving Mr. Banks”, Simon Duggan “The Great Gatsby”, Anthony Dod Mantle “Rush”

Lubezki is the favourite to win here so far for his stunning work on Gravity and his picked up several awards already so he is safe. Delbonnel is a close second with Bobbitt not far behind. Deakins, Papamichael and Ackroyd will likely close up the last 2 spots. ASC has broken ground with a surprising 7 nominees (a 3-way tie for 5th spot). Lubezki, Delbonnel, Bobbitt, Papamichael, Deakins, Ackroyd and Le Sourd all received the ASC nod.


Best Film Editing- Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger “Gravity”, Christopher Rouse “Captain Phillips”, Joe Walker “12 Years a Slave”, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers & Alan Baumgarten “American Hustle”, Thelma Schoonmaker “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Other Possibilities- Eric Zumbrunnen & Jeff Buchanan “Her”, Daniel P Hanley & Mike Hill “Rush”, Roderick Jaynes “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Kevin Tent “Nebraska”, Stephen Mirrione “August: Osage County”, Mark Livolsi “Saving Mr. Banks”, Pete Beaudreau “All is Lost”

              Cuaron & Sanger have the lead here and both Rouse and Walker should be safe, but otherwise it is a tight race for a nomination. Zumbrunnen & Buchanan have gained some momentum by beating out Hanley & Hill for an ACE nomination, so Rush may not make the cut (pun intended) even with the BAFTA nomination. Jaynes & Tent could also possibly sneak in and while Mirrione and Livolsi both received ACE nominations, their chances are weak.



Best Production Design- Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker “12 Years a Slave”, Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn “The Great Gatsby”, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright & Ra Vincent “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin “Saving Mr. Banks”, Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler “American Hustle”

Major Players- Jess Gonchor & Susan Bode “Inside Llewyn Davis”, Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin “Gravity”KK Barrett & Gene Serdena “Her”

Other Possibilities- Paul Kirby “Captain Phillips”, David Gropman & Nancy Haigh “August: Osage County”, Robert Stromberg & Nancy Haigh “Oz: The Great and Powerful”, Tim Galvin & Diane Lederman “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Maria Djurkovic & Tatiana Macdonald “The Invisible Woman”, Jeff Mann & Regina Graves “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty”, Santo Loquasto “Blue Jasmine”

              Now, this is a nerve racking one to predict as I actually managed to predict all 5 nominees last year and there is some stiff competition this year. 12 Years a Slave and The Great Gatsby are the closest we will see to locks here. The final 3 spots are split between American Hustle, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Her and Saving Mr. Banks, so this really could go anyone's way.
              My bets are on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Saving Mr. Banks and American Hustle. Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Her could all very easily pick up spots, however.


Best Costume Design- Catherine Martin “The Great Gatsby”, 
Patricia Norris “12 Years a Slave”, Michael Wilkinson “American Hustle”, Daniel Orlandi “Saving Mr. Banks”, Mary Zophres “Inside Llewyn Davis”

Big Threats- Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey & Richard Taylor “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, Michael O’Connor “The Invisible Woman”

Other Possibilities- Gary Jones “Oz: The Great and Powerful”, Penny Rose “The Lone Ranger”, Kurt Swanson & Bart Mueller “Dallas Buyers Club”, Ruth E Carter “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Trish Summerville “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”, Suzy Benzinger “Blue Jasmine”, Casey Storm “Her”, Wendy Chuck “Nebraska”, Consolata Boyle “Philomena”, Sarah Edwards “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty”

              Martin, Wilkinson and Norris are all looking like locks and Orlandi is a safe bet. Buck, Maskrey & Taylor picked up a Critics’ Choice nomination and could easily break into this category. O’Connor picked up a BAFTA nomination (alongside Behind the Candelabra, which is ineligible at the Oscars) in place of Norris and Zophres. There's a good chance that he could once again knock out Zophres at the Oscars as well.


Best Makeup & Hairstyling- American Hustle, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

The Rest of the Shortlist- Dallas Buyers Club, The Great Gatsby, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters

The Academy’s shortlist has completely changed this race and has quickly made it the most unexpectedly controversial category of the year so far. The 7 shortlisted films saw major snubs for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Rush, Oz: The Great and Powerful and 12 Years a Slave.
Taking all this into account the race has completely changed and the frontrunners are currently Bad Grandpa and American Hustle. The Lone Ranger is also leading here, but a lack of love for The Lone Ranger and Bad Grandpa could cost them their spots to The Great Gatsby, Dallas Buyers Club and even The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The only safe bet is that Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters will not get an Oscar nomination.
Sidebar: Controversy around what have been some of the biggest snubs of the year (so far) could prompt the Academy to finally bump this category up from 3 to 5 nominees.



Best Visual Effects- Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Pacific Rim

Shortlist- Elysium, The Lone Ranger, Oblivion, Thor: The Dark World, World War Z

         These 5 are a fairly strong bet, probably one of the easiest to call, especially with 10 films to pick from on the shortlist and the likes of Man of Steel, Rush and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty left off. Not only is Gravity a lock, but like Life of Pi last year you can safely say it will win.  VES and BAFTA nominations back up this crew.


Best Sound Editing- Gravity, Captain Phillips, All is Lost
, Rush, Lone Survivor

Other Possibilities- Pacific Rim, Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Oblivion, The Great Gatsby, 12 Years a Slave

              It's a crowded category, but Lone Survivor's late release date is the only weak link. Pacific Rim, Iron Man 3 or even Man of Steel (but that's a stretch) could steal that last spot. MPSE nominees remain evasive so it's hard to know which the Oscars could go.


Best Sound Mixing- Gravity, Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor, All is Lost

Other Possibilities- 12 Years a Slave, Iron Man 3, Rush, Man of Steel, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Oblivion, The Great Gatsby

              The CAS nominees are Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Captain Phillips, Lone Survivor and Iron Man 3. The Oscars will likely follow their lead, replacing Iron Man 3 with All is Lost. 12 Years a Slave or Rush could even pick up a spot, as the Oscars love to give 'surprise' nominations to heavy hitting dramas.


Best Original Score- Hans Zimmer “12 Years a Slave”, Steven Price “Gravity”, Thomas Newman “Saving Mr. Banks”, Alex Ebert “All is Lost”, Henry Jackman “Captain Phillips”

Major Players- Randy Newman “Monsters University”, William Butler & Owen Pallett “Her”, Alexandre Desplat “Philomena”, John Williams “The Book Thief”

Other Possibilities- Howard Shore “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, Rodrigo Leao “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, Hans Zimmer “Man of Steel”, Hans Zimmer “Rush”

              Mostly familiar names here. This will be Price’s first nomination and at the moment he and Zimmer are the frontrunners to win. Thomas Newman is a fairly safe bet at this point although there is plenty of room for snubs. Ebert and Jackman will likely earn their first Oscar nominations, although they will have to compete with Randy Newman, Butler & Pallett, Desplat and Williams. Jackman knocked out Randy Newman at the BAFTAs and Ebert won at the Golden Globe, so there's definitely some momentum behind both. This is one category that I expect to be proven quite wrong in.


Best Original Song- Let It Go “Frozen”, Ordinary Love “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”, Young & Beautiful “The Great Gatsby”, So You Know What It’s Like “Short Term 12”
, Atlas “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”

Possible Steals- Amen “All is Lost”, In the Middle of the Night “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”Sweeter Than Fiction “One Chance”Happy “Despicable Me 2”, The Moon Song “Her”

Other Possibilities- You and I Ain’t Nothing No More “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”, I See Fire “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, $100 Bill “The Great Gatsby”, My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise) “12 Years a Slave”

              Let It Go is the closest to a lock we will see in this always unpredictable category. Please Mr. Kennedy was the other frontrunner for the season until the Academy declared it ineligible and left it off of the 75 song shortlist. Let It Go, Atlas and Ordinary Love received both Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations, with Ordinary Love winning the Golden Globe. Happy and Young & Beautiful also received Critics’ Choice nominations, while Sweeter than Fiction received a Golden Globe nomination. Atlas will likely be dethroned by either In the Middle of the Night, Amen or Sweeter Than Fiction, but in deciding which one I just opted to give Atlas my vote of confidence.



Best Animated Film- Frozen, The Wind Rises, Despicable Me 2, Monsters University, The Croods

Major Players- Epic, Ernest and Celestine, A Letter to Momo

Rest of the Shortlist- Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Turbo, The Smurfs 2, The Fake, Khumba, The Legend of Sarila, O Apostolo, Puelle Magi Madoka Magica the Movie, Rebellion Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury, Free Birds, Planes

              The Croods knocked out The Wind Rises at the PGA, but I expect it will be Epic it knocks out this time. The Annie Awards actually highlight this race pretty well with Epic being the only major player left off the ballot.


Best Foreign Language Film- Thomas Vinterberg “The Hunt” (Denmark), Paolo Sorrentino “The Great Beauty” (Italy), Wong Kar-wai “The Grandmaster” (Hong Kong), Felix van Groeningen “The Broken Circle Breakdown” (Belgium)
, Janos Szasz “The Notebook” (Hungary)

Shortlist- Hany Abu-Assad “Omar” (Palestine), Georg Maas “Two Lives” (Germany), Danis Tanovic “An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker” (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Rithy Panh “The Missing Picture” (Cambodia)

              The Great Beauty and The Hunt seemed like locks to begin with, picking up Golden Globe nominations and are probably even safer with the likes of The Past, Wadjda, Ilo Ilo and Gabrielle being snubbed from the Academy's shortlist. The Grandmaster and The Broken Circle Breakdown have moved up in the world and will likely make the cut alongside The Notebook (no, not the one with Ryan Gosling).


Best Documentary (Feature)- Stories We Tell, Blackfish, The Act of Killing, 20 Feet from Stardom, The Crash Reel

Shortlist- Tim's Vermeer, Life According to Sam, Which Way is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington, Cutie and the Boxer, The Armstrong Lie, Dirty Wars, First Cousin Once Removed, God Loves Uganda, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, The Square

              Stories We Tell, The Act of Killing and 20 Feet from Stardom are all safe bets at this point, with Blackfish acting as the populist option (it didn't work for Bully last year, but I think Blackfish can pull it off).
              Life According to Sam and Which Way is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington both received PGA nominations, and Tim’s Vermeer received a Critics’ Choice nomination, so these three could steal the final spot.
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Best Documentary (Short Subject)

Shortlist- CaveDigger, Facing Fear, Jujitsu-ing Reality, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall, Recollections, SLOMO


Best Short (Animated)- Gloria Victoria, Subconscious Password, Get a Horse!, Requiem for Romance, Room on the Broom

Shortlist- Feral, Hollow Land, The Missing Scarf, Possessions, Mr Hublot

              Intentionally loud, abstract and difficult to love, Theodore Ushev’s Gloria Victoria is a frontrunner going into Oscar season, especially with Pixar’s The Blue Umbrella out of the picture. A snub for Gloria Victoria would tip the Academy’s hand on how out of touch some Oscar voters are in this field. Disney’s Get a Horse! and fellow NFB production Subconscious Password are relatively safe bets as well. Gloria Victoria and Get a Horse! both received Annie nominations so that should help them out as well. Requiem for Romance is a beautiful and painful (in a good way) love story that I would love to see nominated and Room on the Broom fills the classic children’s animation slot.


Best Short (Live Action)

Shortlist- Record/Play, Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), Dva (Two), Helium, Kush, Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), Throat Song, Tiger Boy, The Voorman Problem

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