Thursday, January 10, 2013

85th Academy Awards Nominations


Well the results are in! Host Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone announced the nominees for the 85th Academy Awards this morning. There certainly were a couple big shockers, and big name snubs, but otherwise everything went more or less as predicted. So how did everything go down, who are the nominees and who should have been nominated? Read on!

Best Picture- Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Probably the least surprising category. 9 nominees as predicted, Moonrise Kingdom and The Master were left out and Amour is in.

Director- Michael Haneke ‘Amour’, Ang Lee ‘Life of Pi’, David O Russell ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, Steven Spielberg ‘Lincoln’, Benh Zeitlin ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’

Wow. So, obviously the biggest and most shocking snubs came here. Kathryn Bigelow 'Zero Dark Thirty' and Ben Affleck 'Argo', were probably at the top of everyone's prediction list, especially after being nominated for the Director's Guild of America Award and the oversight here was a total blind side. You could hear the buzz among the press present at the announcement after the nominees were called. Tom Hooper 'Les Miserables', who is also nominated for the DGA Award, was a much less shocking omission.

Actor in a Leading Role- Bradley Cooper ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, Daniel Day-Lewis ‘Lincoln’, Hugh Jackman ‘Les Miserables’, Joaquin Phoenix ‘The Master’, Denzel Washington ‘Flight’

Another big surprise omission here for John Hawkes 'The Sessions', otherwise totally predictable nominees.

Actress in a Leading Role- Jessica Chastain ‘Zero Dark Thirty’, Jennifer Lawence ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, Emmanuelle Riva ‘Amour’, Quvenzhane Wallis ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’, Naomi Watts ‘The Impossible’

Emmanuelle Riva 'Amour' beat out strong contenders Helen Mirren 'Hitchcock', Marion Cotillard 'Rust and Bone' and Rachel Weisz 'The Deep Blue Sea', but not a big shocker. What was a shocker however was that Watts made it in over Cotillard, or even Mirren. The pairing of Wallis (9 years old) and Riva (who turns 86 the night of the Oscars), also marks the nomination of both the youngest and oldest Best Actress nominees ever.

Actor in a Supporting Role- Alan Arkin ‘Argo’, Robert De Niro ‘Silver Linings Playbook’, Tommy Lee Jones ‘Lincoln’, Phillip Seymour Hoffman ‘The Master’, Christoph Waltz ‘Django Unchained’

So it turns out that Christoph Waltz beat out his Django Unchained co-star Leonardo DiCaprio, who along with Javier Bardem 'Skyfall' didn't make the cut.

Actress in a Supporting Role- Amy Adams ‘The Master’, Sally Field ‘Lincoln, Anne Hathaway ‘Les Miserables’, Helen Hunt ‘The Sessions’, Jacki Weaver ‘Silver Linings Playbook’

Now here was another surprise that definitely has people talking. Not that Nicole Kidman 'The Paperboy' was a sure thing, but the inclusion of Jacki Weaver seems to have come out of nowhere and has everyone stunned. I at least expected Maggie Smith 'The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel' or Judi Dench 'Skyfall' to get in at Kidman's expense.

Original Screenplay- Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

Well Looper and Seven Psychopaths didn't quite make the cut and both will miss out on the Oscars, but we saw that coming, right?

Adapted Screenplay- Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

Not much of surprise here. Beasts of the Southern Wild did manage to edge out The Perks of Being a Wallflower though (yet another great film this year to go home Oscar-less).

Animated Feature Film- Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates!, Wreck-It Ralph

Not only did Rise of the Guardians not make it in, but it lost it's spot to The Pirates! I don't know what else to say. A strange year in Animated Film, almost supernatural even.

Foreign Language Film- Amour (Austria), A Royal Affair (Denmark), Kon-Tiki (Norway), No (Chile), War Witch (Canada)

Yes, Canada made the cut! I find that almost as exciting as the obvious exclusion of The Intouchables over Kon-Tiki. Who knows maybe now with Amour up for Best Picture (and with a good chance at winning), A Royal Affair might take the win? It would be a surprise, but this is clearly a year of big surprises at the Oscars.

Feature Documentary- 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man

Bully didn't make it in. Any other year I'd complain, but it's a good year for documentaries, or so I hear.

Short Subject Documentary- Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption

No big surprises here really.

Animated Short Film- Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson: The Longest Daycare, Paperman

Or here.

Live Action Short Film- Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, Henry

Or here either.

Cinematography- Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

The Master and Zero Dark Thirty didn't quite make the cut, in what is shaping up to be a disappointing Oscar year for both films so far. Hopefully they will have better luck on Oscar night.

Film Editing- Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Silver Linings Playbook is doing better than I expected, including nominees in all 4 acting categories. Could this restore hopes of an Oscar win over Lincoln? (Probably not, but we'll see.)

Production Design- Anna Karenina, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln

First of all I'd like to point out that I predicted all 5 of these nominees. Actually, I'm just going to leave this at bragging. Now if only my other predictions had such luck...

Costume Design- Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman

Okay, Snow White is the 'fairest in all the land', she owns a couple nice dresses- we get it. If only Mirror Mirror or Snow White and the Huntsman could be as fair. Maybe the Academy has gotten used to Richard Taylor's fantastic costume design (he was nominated for Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and won for Lord of the Rings: Return of the King), because they are certainly taking it for granted in The Hobbit: An Unexpected JourneyA traditionally unpredictable category it's true, but don't even get me started on the series of snubs for Django Unchained

Makeup and Hairstyling- Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables

Yes, folks you read correctly Lincoln was not nominated for everything. At the rate it was going I thought it would take Foreign Film too. Guess I'll have to rearrange my predictions for a win here now.

Sound Editing- Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

The one category that favours summer blockbusters and neither The Avengers nor The Dark Knight Rises are nominated. Well, at least Django Unchained got a nomination.

Sound Mixing- Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

I have to admit, while I didn't predict it, Lincoln's nomination here actually does make a lot of sense. Argo also surprised me here, although earlier in the year I had said it would get nominated. I think this is definitely one category I need to devote more attention to. That being said, I still don't understand why Zero Dark Thirty isn't on this list.

Original Score- Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

Even I was surprised by how accurate my predictions here were, Beasts of the Southern Wild while beautifully composed and deserving of a nomination was not a surprising snub. It's a shame Hans Zimmer wasn't nominated for The Dark Knight Rises though. 

Original Song- Before My Time ‘Chasing Ice’, Everybody Needs a Best Friend ‘Ted’, Pi’s Lullaby ‘Life of Pi’, Skyfall ‘Skyfall‘, Suddenly ‘Les Miserables’

Best Original Song has always been an unusual category, full of surprise nominations but I didn't see this coming. While Before My Time is probably the only big surprise here, what is even more surprising is that Brave did not see a nomination for Learn Me Right or Touch the Sky.

Visual Effects- The Avengers, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman

Again The Dark Knight Rises was not nominated and again we Snow White and the Huntsman in place of a better movie. What I'm more interested in (aside from how Prince Charming is cooler than the 90-degree turn the Batpod does) is how Cloud Atlas didn't make the cut. I figured this would be it's only nomination, but I was sure it would get nominated.


"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times", I couldn't find a better way to express my feelings about these nominations. Now if I can only figure out who will win...










Eat your heart out Snow White (haha, irony).

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

85th Academy Awards Predictions

Wow, it's that time of year already. Tomorrow the Academy will announce the nominees for the 85th Academy Awards on Feb 24, 2013. There are some clear front-runners here and while some (myself included) might call 2012 a weak year for movies, the few good movies of the year will be battling it out quite a bit. I will be waking up early (well, early to me at least) for the nominations on Thursday and will post again then to discuss all the big 'Oscar-snubs' and the I-can't-believe-that-actually-got-nominated shockers. Until then, I shall leave you with my 2012 Oscar Predictions!

Best Picture- Well, let's start at the top here. The Academy's recent changes to the Best Picture category could see anywhere from 5-10 nominees here.
1) Argo
2) Django Unchained
3) Lincoln
4) Silver Linings Playbook
5) Zero Dark Thirty
6) Les Miserables
7) Life of Pi
8) Moonrise Kingdom
9) The Master
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild

While Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty seem to be the clear front-runners to win Best Picture, that's about the only clear thing in this race. At this point the 1-5 seem to be definite locks with 6-9 almost certainly being nominated. 10 is a hopeful prediction on my part. The uncertain number of nominees could cause a lot of upset this year, however. All 10 spots could easily be filled, but I believe we will only see 8 or 9 spots, to flesh out competition for the 10th nomination. Possible 'spoiler nominations' include: The Impossible, The Sessions, Amour, Anna Karenina and Cloud Atlas (which, while I would be shocked if it was nominated, is one of the best movies I've seen of 2012 and I would readily swap out Life of Pi or The Master if I was an Academy voter).

Long Shots- The Dark Knight Rises, FlightLooper, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, On the Road, Skyfall and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Best Director- Slightly more predictable nominees than Best Picture, but a tough race for the win.
1) Ben Affleck 'Argo'
2) Steven Spielberg 'Lincoln'
3) Kathryn Bigelow 'Zero Dark Thirty'
4) Ang Lee 'Life of Pi'
5) Quentin Tarantino 'Django Unchained'

The first 3 are definite locks (unless we are going to see some major snubs this year, ie. Ben Affleck) with one of them most likely taking home the Oscar. 4 and 5 could see some possible spoilers, most likely from David O Russell 'Silver Linings Playbook'. Michael Haneke 'Amour', Wes Anderson 'Moonrise Kingdom', Paul Thomas Anderson 'The Master' and Tom Hooper 'Les Miserables' (who received the 5th nomination for the Director's Guild Awards) could also break in for a nomination.

Long Shots- Juan Antonio Bayona 'The Impossible', Benh Zeitlin 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' and Joe Wright 'Anna Karenina'.

Best Actor in a Leading Role- More or less a repeat of the Best Director race.
1)- Daniel Day-Lewis 'Lincoln'
2)- Joaquin Phoenix 'The Master'
3)- John Hawkes 'The Sessions'
4)- Bradley Cooper 'Silver Linings Playbook'
5)- Denzel Washington 'Flight'

Again 1-3 are locks (although Joaquin Phoenix was snubbed a SAG Awards nomination), 4 is almost certain and 5 is a safe bet. Hugh Jackman 'Les Miserables' and Richard Gere 'Arbitrage' could steal the 5th nomination.

Long Shots- Anthony Hopkins 'Hitchcock', Jamie Foxx 'Django Unchained', Ewan McGregor 'The Impossible', Colin Firth 'Seven Psychopaths' and Brad Pitt 'Kill Them Softly'. I would also like to give Garrett Hedlund 'On the Road' and Logan Lerman 'The Perks of Being a Wallflower', notable mentions for outstanding performances which will almost certainly go unrecognized.

Best Actress in a Leading Role- A fairly simple race, really.
1) Jennifer Lawrence 'Silver Linings Playbook'
2) Jessica Chastain 'Zero Dark Thirty'
3) Marion Cotillard 'Rust and Bone'
4) Naomi Watts 'The Impossible'
5) Quvenzhane Wallis 'Beasts of the Southern Wild'

It's a two-woman race between Lawrence and Chastain for the Oscar. All 5 nominations are pretty solid bets, although we could see Helen Mirren 'Hitchcock' (most likely), Rachel Weisz 'The Deep Blue Sea' and Emanuelle Riva 'Amour' in there somewhere.

Long Shots- Kiera Knightley 'Anna Karenina', Meryl Streep 'Hope Springs', Judi Dench 'The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel' and Maggie Smith 'Quartet'.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role- Now this will be the race to watch. I guarantee we will see the most upsets and the closest race here. Maybe even a tie? If it were ever to happen, this is where you would see it.
1) Philip Seymour Hoffman 'The Master'
2) Tommy Lee Jones 'Lincoln'
3) Robert De Niro 'Silver Linings Playbook'
4) Leonardo DiCaprio 'Django Unchained'
5) Alan Arkin 'Argo'

1 and 2 are the closest we will see to a lock here. Christoph Waltz 'Django Unchained' could easily steal the 5th nomination from Arkin and the two will be neck-to-neck here for a nomination. Javier Bardem 'Skyfall' could possible sneak in as well and any other year I'd love to see him in there but in such a tight crowd I won't bet on it.

Long Shots- Russell Crowe 'Les Miserables', Jude Law 'Anna Karenina', Samuel L Jackson 'Django Unchained', Tom Holland 'The Impossible', Christopher Walken 'Seven Psychopaths', Sam Rockwell 'Seven Psychopaths' and Paul Giamatti 'Cosmopolis'.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role- Complete opposite of the last category here. Very clear winner, nominees are fairly up for grabs but the Oscar is in the bag.
1) Anne Hathaway 'Les Miserables'
2) Amy Adams 'The Master'
3) Helen Hunt 'The Sessions'
4) Sally Field 'Lincoln'
5) Nicole Kidman 'The Paperboy'

Same as the Golden Globes. Anne Hathaway should take the Oscar. Maggie Smith 'The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel', Judi Dench 'Skyfall', Samantha Barks 'Les Miserables' and Kristen Stewart 'On the Road' all have a fair chance of being nominated as well.

Long Shots- Emma Watson 'The Perks of Being a Wallflower'.

Best Original Screenplay- Not too many possibilities this year, so it's a fairly straightforward race.
1)- Mark Boal 'Zero Dark Thirty'
2)- Quentin Tarantino, Roman Coppola 'Django Unchained'
3)- Wes Anderson 'Moonrise Kingdom'
4)- Rian Johnson 'Looper'
5)- Martin McDonagh 'Seven Psychopaths'

Paul Thomas Anderson 'The Master' could spoil the nominations, however, considering how awful a screenplay (or lack thereof) he wrote I wouldn't count on it (hopefully). Sergio G Sanchez 'The Impossible', is most likely to spoil with Michael Haneke 'Amour', John Gatins 'Flight' and Nicholas Jarecki 'Arbitrage' not far behind.

Best Adapted Screenplay- Another fairly straightforward race, but with room for a couple of suprises.
1)- Tony Kushner 'Lincoln'
2)- Chris Terrio 'Argo'
3)- David O Russell 'Silver Linings Playbook'
4)- Stephen Chbosky 'The Perks of Being a Wallflower'
5)- David Magee 'Life of Pi'

Tom Stoppard 'Anna Karenina', Ben Lewin 'The Sessions', Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlan 'Beasts of the Southern Wild', Tom Tykwer, Andy and Lana Wachowski 'Cloud Atlas', Jose Rivera 'On the Road' and William Nicholson 'Les Miserables' have a fair chance of earning a nomination.

Long Shots- John Logan, Patrick Marber, Neal Purvis and Robert Wade 'Skyfall' and Ol Parker 'The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel'.

Best Animated Feature Film- A good amount of choice, but a small amount of good choices. Also, interestingly the year of supernatural animated movies.
1)- Brave
2)- Frankenweenie
3)- Rise of the Guardians
4)- ParaNorman
5)- Hotel Transylavnia

Brave is the clear front-runner to win. Wreck-It Ralph, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, The Lorax and The Rabbi's Cat are possible stealers for 4 and 5.

Best Foreign Language Film- Definite front-runner and a tight race even after being shortlisted to 9 films.
1)- Amour (Austria)
2)- A Royal Affair (Denmark)
3)- The Intouchables (France)
4)- Rebelle (Canada)
5)- Kon-TIki (Norway)

Amour is the front-runner to win, with a possible Best Picture nomination as well. No (Chile), Beyond the Hills (Romania), Our Children (Belgium) and Sister (Switzerland) are the other shortlisted films that could steal a spot.

Best Cinematography- Relatively close race even with two front-runners.
1)- Claudio Miranda 'Life of Pi'
2)- Greig Fraser 'Zero Dark Thirty'
3)- Mihai Malaimare Jr. 'The Master'
4)- Janusz Kaminski 'Lincoln'
5)- Roger Deakins 'Skyfall' 

Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty are the front-runners which makes them pretty locked up, but this could be a very interesting race to watch. Robert Richardson 'Django Unchained'Danny Cohen 'Les Miserables' and Wally Pfister 'The Dark Knight Rises' are mostly likely to steal a nomination.

Long Shot- Ben Richardson 'Beasts of the Southern Wild', Eric Gautier 'On the Road' and Rodrigo Prieto 'Argo'.

Best Film Editing- Very similar race to Best Cinematography, which makes sense given the close nature between the two areas.
1)- Michael Kahn 'Lincoln'
2)- Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg 'Zero Dark Thirty'
3)- William Goldenberg 'Argo'
4)- Peter McNulty and Leslie Jones 'The Master'
5)- Tom Squyres 'Life of Pi'

This is looking like a pretty good year for William Goldenberg with two very likely nominations and a very good shot at a win, Michael Kahn is his biggest competition against a win for Zero Dark Thirty. Fred Raskin 'Django Unchained', Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers 'Silver Linings Playbook' and Chris Dickens 'Les Miserables' could spoil.

Long Shots- Lee Smith 'The Dark Knight Rises' and Stuart Baird 'Skyfall'.

Best Production Design- The award formerly known as Best Art Direction, happens to be one of my favourite Oscar categories and this will surely be one of the most contended categories (Don't call me Shirley!, I know).
1)- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer 'Anna Karenina'
2)- Rick Carter, Jim Erickson and Peter T Frank 'Lincoln'
3)- Eve Stewart 'Les Miserables'
4)- Dan Hennah and Ra Vincent 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey'
5)- David Gropman and Anna Pinnock 'Life of Pi'

1 and 2 are near definite locks at this point and Anna Karenina is the front-runner to win, with a fresh and unique take on production design. J Michael Riva and Leslie A Pope 'Django Unchained', David Crank, Jack Fisk and Amy Wells 'The Master'Hugh Bateup and Uli Hanisch 'Cloud Atlas', Nathan Crowley, Kevin Kavanaugh and Paki Smith 'The Dark Knight Rises' and Sharon Seymour and Jan Pascale 'Argo' are most likely to unseat any of the possible nominees.

Long Shots- Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran 'Moonrise Kingdom' and Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock 'Skyfall'.

Best Visual Effects- Suprisingly not that big of a race.
1)- Life of Pi
2)- Cloud Atlas
3)- The Avengers
4)- The Dark Knight Rises
5)- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi is an almost guaranteed winner at this point, with Cloud Atlas as a possible steal. Skyfall and Prometheus are most likely among the shortlisted films to steal a nomination.

Long Shots- The Amazing Spider-Man, John Carter and Snow White and the Huntsman.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling- About time the Academy's hairdressers got some recognition! Tommy Lee Jones' ridiculous wig in Lincoln aside, however, the new name change to include hairstyling is a big step in the right direction. Now if only we could see a bump to 5 nominees here.
1)- Lincoln
2)- Les Miserables
3)- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

It's the battle of the L word in Hollywood. Lincoln is the front-runner, but as I mentioned Tommy Lee Jones' wig is so ridiculous I hardly feel the hairstyling portion of the award is appropriate and The Hobbit or Les Miserables could definitely swoop in there. Looper and Hitchcock are still both definite possibilities as well. One of the few categories where it's still anyone's game.

Long Shots- Men In Black 3 and Snow White and the Huntsman.

Best Costume Design- The nominees are more or less set, but another category where it's still anyone's game.
1)- Paco Delgado 'Les Miserables'
2)- Joanna Johnston 'Lincoln'
3)- Jacqueline Durran 'Anna Karenina'
4)- Sharen Davis 'Django Unchained'
5)- Ann Maskrey and Richard Taylor 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey'

Kim Barrett and Pierre-Yves Gayraud 'Cloud Atlas', Eiko Ishioka 'Mirror Mirror', Jacqueline West 'Argo' and Mark Bridges 'The Master' could unseat 4 and 5.

Best Original Score- So many excellent choices. I'd say there are almost a dozen worthy nominees, but sadly only 5 can make it in.
1)- John Williams 'Lincoln'
2)- Alexandre Desplat 'Argo'
3)- Dario Marianelli 'Anna Karenina'
4)- Mychael Danna 'Life of Pi'
5)- Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin 'Beasts of the Southern Wild'

Lincoln is probably the closest to a lock here, with my vote for the Oscar as well. Donny Greenwood 'The Master', Hans Zimmer 'The Dark Knight Rises'Thomas Newman 'Skyfall', Patrick Doyle 'Brave', Tom Tykwer, Reinhold Hell and Johnny Klimek 'Cloud Atlas' and Alexandre Desplat 'Zero Dark Thirty' could all wind up the mix somewhere.

Long Shots- Gustavo Santoallalo 'On the Road', Danny Elfman 'Frankenweenie', Alexandre Desplat 'Rise of the Guardians', Howard Shore 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' and Danny Elfman 'Hitchcock'.

Best Original Song- Another new rule change here has bumped up the number of nominees to 5, but otherwise it's a fairly familiar game.
1)- Skyfall 'Skyfall'
2)- Learn Me Right 'Brave'
3)- Suddenly 'Les Miserables'
4)- Still Alive 'Paul Williams: Still Alive
5)- 'For You 'Act of Valor'

Long Shots- Ancora Qui 'Django Unchained', Touch the Sky 'Brave', Strange Love 'Frankenweenie', Abraham's Daughter 'The Hunger Games' and Wide Awake 'Katy Perry: Part of Me'.

Best Sound Editing- Definitely another interesting race to keep an eye on. In a groundbreaking year for sound, some combination of the same 7 films will likely emerge in both Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. The first 3 are mostly locked in, however it's definitely going to be a close call.
1)- The Dark Knight Rises
2)- Django Unchained
3)- Zero Dark Thirty
4)- Skyfall
5)- The Avengers

Simply put, sound editing is the creation of sound effects in a film. Big-budget action and war movies usually do well here, because of the number of different sounds that have to be created in harmony with each other. Life of Pi, The Hobbit and Les Miserables could all easily shake things up quite a bit here.

Best Sound Mixing- The first 3 are relatively locked and much more so then in Best Sound Editing, but it will be a tight race for the 4th and 5th nominations.
1)- The Dark Knight Rises
2)- Zero Dark Thirty
3)- Les Miserables
4)- Life of Pi
5)- The Avengers

Sound mixing is the composition of sound in a film. It's how dialogue, sound and music all come together, when you need to hear which and when you need to hear nothing at all. Musicals usually do well here, since they have to balance many different layers of sound and music. Skyfall and Django Unchained could easily upset 4 or 5.

Long Shots- The Impossible, Cloud Atlas and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Best Documentary (Feature)- A tricky category to predict and not one that I follow that closely to be totally honest.
1)- Searching for Sugar Man
2)- The Invisible War
3)- How to Survive a Plague
4)- Bully
5)- The Gatekeepers

Searching for Sugar Man is the front-runner, 1-3 seem to be locks and Bully should get in from an altruistic standpoint. The Imposter, Ai Wei: Never Sorry and This is Not a Film could knock out 4 or 5. Mea Maxima Culpa, Detropia, The House I Live In, 5 Broken Cameras, Chasing Ice, The Waiting Room and Ethel are the other shortlisted candidates.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)- See Best Documentary (Feature).
1)- The Education of Mohammad Hussein
2)- Open Heart
3)- Paraiso
4)- The Perfect Fit
5)- King's Point

Inocente, Mondays at Racine and Redemption have also been shortlisted.

Best Short Film (Live Action)- See Best Documentary (Feature).
1)- when you find me
2)- Death of a Shadow
3)- Curfew
4)- A Fabrica
5)- The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars

Buzkashi Boys, Henry, Kiruna-Kigali, Asad, 9meter, Salar are the other candidates for a nomination.

Best Short Film (Animated)- A fun little category to pay attention to and quick to get caught up on.
1)- Paperman
2)- Maggie Simpson: The Longest Daycare
3)- Fresh Guacamole
4)- Dripped
5)- The Fall of the House of Usher

Adam and Dog, Head Over Heels, Combustible and The Eagleman Stag are likely upsets.

Long Shot- Tram